The race for digitalisation may lead to overdependence on technology

Morning hours in our residential colony are abuzz with yells of daily hawkers with their branded pieces of verbal identities. Residents rush out of home, buy fruits, vegetables, fish and chicken for the day from the vendors with whom they had developed a bond of strong customer loyalty. During pandemic our rations were delivered at doorstep through digital orders. The same band of customers now throng the nearby malls, weekly haats or buy the essentials from the daily vendors at doorsteps to get a feel of human warmth, friendship and social touch! Business activity is more or less a social process. When we talk of what more to digitalisation, these issues come to the forefront too. As economies prepare for Industry 4.0, firms are increasingly pushing their own limits in going digital through adoption of technology and harnessing the power of data. This race for achieving the edge in digitalisation has been made necessary due to rising competition between firms to carve out a niche for themselves in their respective sectors. This has yielded results in terms of reduced turnaround times, lower costs, higher efficiency enabling the firms to change themselves to the needs of time.

Yet at the same time, this has tended to raise the concern whether digitalisation has become an end in itself rather than a means to achieve a more constructive goal. This has opened up multiple perspectives and issues. Do we allow ourselves only to wander in the Rabbit hole of data crunching and analytics putting a blind eye to the whole universe of human emotions and behavioural  parameters? No doubt the digital routes and multiple apps have opened up ever changing ways of reaching out to wider marketing possibilities and opportunities, helping in planning inventories and closing the gap with the end users of a product. It is true that a capable analytics practitioner not only allows the business operators take care of the movements of their product route to the target hands but also even the consumers themselves can monitor these through retail link systems and provide instantaneous feedback for their satisfaction. But the moot point in this case is whether the enterprises are becoming more myopic in their outlook thereby losing sight of their long term objectives in their race to acquire the latest digitally appropriate technology. We must remember that value of a firm rests in the product it delivers in the market. Thus, the ultimate objective of the firm should be to add value to the product through regular innovation and feedback. Singular emphasis on metric driven value points may desist a firm from going for blue sky improvement to create value for their loyal customers. For the decision makers it turns out to be a game theoretic choice between mere data crunching and an idea generating environment.  Waiting for adequate and appropriate quanta  of data may be a roadblock for entrepreneurial impulses.  In many cases, it has been observed that firms are adding or acquiring technology that might not be necessary to improve the quality or scale of the product but guided merely by the short-term principle of ‘if they, why not me’. In some of these cases, the firms would have had better success if they had invested in their human resources, on their R&D or focused on the feedback being received from the end users through a system of social connect. In the process, the firms lose out on their competitive edge on their products. This pertinent point has been raised by Mahadeva Matt Mani and Paul Leinwand in their book ‘Beyond Digital’. While the authors deal with multiple leadership perspectives necessary to navigate the digital world, the point of firms tending to focus on technology acquisition as an end in itself has been discussed extensively in the book. 

While the online lectures, classes, meetings and work-from-home (WFH) arrangements helped in keeping the offices functioning even during the worst of the pandemic, they also highlighted the need to focus on the quality of human resources, the importance of socio physical interactions among stakeholders and the need to be concerned about the quality of work-life-balance. Thus, of late, we are seeing quite a lot of large firms focusing on upscaling the quality of their human resources. This is even true for start-ups which are actually dependent on the strength of their innovation. This innovative potential can be fully exploited only if the human minds are given the best environment to work in and where the pulse of the users of their product reach them unhindered. 

Another point of concern over the last few years has been the increasing concentration in some industries. The extensive use of technology in various sectors of the economy have given some firms an edge over the others. However, this edge has been further monopolised through the use of modern technologies like AI/ML to gain greater access and control of the market. This was not possible a few years ago as these firms did not have the technology to churn, harvest and analyse such large volumes of data that are being generated in the marketplace. One might appreciate that we are not advocating against the use of modern technology by firms. By all means, as stated earlier, technology is a big enabler. Not only does it improve user experience, it acts as an accelerator for job creation and further tech development. Yet at the same time, the increasing tendency of some industries to get concentrated by a handful of firms is a cause of worry as it can scuttle innovation in the long run. At the same time, the large access to data of users, products and market variables can lead to further regulatory problems for societies.  

Finally, it is important to understand that it is not just firms, but also governments across the world that are participating aggressively in the race of digitalisation. It has been seen that the greater use of technology in various emerging economies has greatly improved the quality and quantity of public service delivery. However, it would be appropriate for policymakers to keep in mind that technology must be an enabler or a facilitator in public service delivery, with the former being just a means to achieve the goal of the latter. Building necessary digital infrastructure, meticulous planning, taking feedback and understanding the bottlenecks coupled with augmentation of human resource potentials are therefore key for effective use of technological interventions. 

Thus, to sum up, while digital frontiers are getting breached by both the government and the private sector, we must continue to remain vigilant about the potential pitfalls of overdependence on technology. Regular review of the various technological interventions where the major user stakeholders are too brought to the board  is imperative to fully exploit the digital transformation and usher in positive growth. After all, as they say,culture is a soft concept while analytics is a hard discipline!

This article appeared in The Economic Times on 22nd August 2022. Written in collaboration with Kuladhar Saikia. Link:https://cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/business-analytics/opinion-the-race-for-digitalisation-may-lead-to-overdependence-on-technology/93697920

Contemporary Economics in DNA

I had written a weekly column in the Daily News and Analysis before joining the service on certain contemporary economic issues of that time. I think that some of them are still relevant today while others throw light on interesting perspectives through the lens of economic analysis.

Take, for instance, how wisdom of the crowd need not always be the correct one and in some cases can turn into a madness of the masses. To a large extent, stock markets can display irrational exuberance in the short run mainly because some of the experts conform to their biases which get magnified and exacerbated with time.

On the one hand, I have written about how why robust institutions are crucial for the economic upliftment of any country, while on the other hand, I have kindled my interest in behavioural economics through a short article on Nudge.

I am jotting down the links to my articles below. To the one with the economic bent of mind, these articles might re-kindle your lost interest in the subject after years of monotonous readings from textbooks. To the uninitiated, these might open up an opportunity to explore the rather mundane subject with a fresh set of perspectives. So, here it goes!

1. Getting Corporates to Cough up Tax Money
2. Solving India’s Twin Balance Sheet problem
3. RBI’s unhealthy obsession with inflation
4. Organ donation movement remains a failure
5. Development not at the cost of nature
6. Nudging economists in right direction
7. Why robust institutions are crucial
8. The mistaken belief in market experts
9. When inequality pulls a nation down
10. India can become a knowledge economy
11. Impact of GST on formal sector
12. Nobel for sustainable economic growth
13. Solving India’s Twin Balance Sheet problem
14. Job growth depends on increasing exports
15. Rising population: Why we need to worry
16. The Amazon effects and monopsony

The Frog Leader for Startups

India is known to have the third largest startup ecosystem in the world. Even though the buzzword is still occupying the prominent space in public plans and governmental schemes, a healthy and robust growth of startup ventures would depend on the leadership factor for their sustainability and long term profitability in a menacingly competitive environment. As per some independent studies, nearly 90% of Indian startups fail within the first five years. One of the most important issues plaguing Indian startups is that of not having specialized leadership expertise which is different from a conventional setup. The latter has a well-established institutional system and successful history with proven track record while the former is a nascent organization with a high probability of failure, if not properly led from the front.  

There is a short and popular folktale which poignantly describes the issues faced by leaders of modern startups in India. 

As the popular grandma’s folktale goes the tiny frog decides to lodge a war against the mighty king whose army has been mutilating the crops by regularly trampling over it. The frog has a big task ahead of him-he has to mobilise the subjects of animal kingdom, from the mighty elephants, lions, tigers to the tiny and innocuous species like caterpillars, grasshoppers and insects like bees and flies! The weapon of motivation, the frog opts for, is a pot of fried lentils mixed with indigenous spices- considered a delicacy in some parts of India. The frog moves on around the jungle with the pot and invites the friends of the forest to come and have a gulp of the lentils and join him in the march to fight against the enemies and save his crops .The animals attracted by the aroma of the delicious lentils decides to join the frog in his war against the king. With his big brigade of army of animals, the tiny frog defeats the mighty king.

In the modern context, the frog and his idea can be compared to a startup trying to disrupt the hegemony of a large corporation (the king) in the market. 

The first and foremost problem faced by many leaders and co-founders is that of building a team that can deliver. The frog knew that he could not fight the king alone. Similarly, a leader is not expected to be a master of all trades: product development, sales, marketing, getting funds and so on. He must bring in the right set of people to work on the project with the same shared passion. For this, he must not only understand his own strengths and weaknesses, but also identify the strengths of the people he wishes to recruit. He must be able to motivate and inspire them. The team members should also be experienced. They need to know the ins and outs of the industry, and the preferences of the consumers. The frog did just this: he assembled a diverse team of animals with each member having a different set of strengths and weaknesses. He was able to motivate them to stay focused (on defeating the king). As per a report, about 23% of startups failed as the founders were not able to assemble the right team. 

The startup team is a small one. Team members must be happy and share the same passion as the leader. The leader should be the go-to person for all the other members. He should be able to hear them out, empathize with them and find ways to solve their troubles. He needs to establish an open line of communication so that grievances can be aired and experiences can be shared. Tensions between co-founders are equally serious and need to be nipped at the bud. Another report finds that nearly 13% of startups fail globally due to disharmony among team members. 

At the same time, leaders need to provide the right incentive to the employees and co-founders. The frog lured the animals using the aroma of the fried lentils. The lentils were not even the staple food of the lion or tiger, yet they were attracted to it. Similarly, the startup leadership needs to go beyond tangible incentives in the form of salaries or efficiency wages. The idea is to provide intangible benefits to the employees which make them feel that they are contributing something to the welfare of society. They need to have a stake in decision-making and the leadership should use phrases like ‘our company’ to make the environment inclusive, rather than ‘my company’ which appears to be exclusionary.  

Unlike large corporations, startups face the problem of paucity of resources. As a result, co-founders have to juggle between multiple roles, from product development to marketing and raising capital. In the process, the startup might lose track of its ultimate goal or objective – of disrupting the market structure, gaining market share and sustaining high turnovers. The startup leadership must not lose focus of these goals. 

One study finds that nearly 77% of investors feel that Indian startups fail due to the lack of innovation. The dynamic and disruptive environment of startups requires leaders to constantly innovate and adapt to the changing circumstances. Another report mentions that many startups fail as their products, which were initially disruptive, failed to keep up to the changing market demands. Thus, startup founders must not be lulled into complacency about the popularity of their products. Founders may have to let go of their most cherished product as they innovate to adapt to market demand. Thus, leadership in these small businesses is an ego-crushing experience, where founders must not be so emotionally attached to their original products that it hinders further innovation. 

The number of startups in India is expected to increase to 11000 by 2020 according to a Nasscom report. Although students of management are taught lessons on leadership, these mostly focus on leadership in large, well-established organizations and not the dynamic environment of a startup. As discussed above, the environment of the latter is very different from that of the former, requiring a completely new set of skills and insights. Hence, there is an urgent need to focus on leadership training for Indian startups in our management programmes. 

This article appeared in The Economic Times’ ET Government Opinion Column on 4th November 2019. Written in collaboration with Kuladhar Saikia. Link: https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/governance/the-frog-leader-for-startups/72053668

Winning the battle of un-equals

First, the devastating episode of unpredicted and not even remotely thought of global pandemic created by a deadly virus led to death of millions, disruption in economies, and decay of liberal political ideas which were to be replaced by strict nationalist considerations across countries. Then came to light the resultant fall out of the disaster in terms of widening gap between the poor and the affluent, and the devouring of small fish by the big and mighty ones in the corporate world. The competitive world became more skewed. 

Yet the good news is that history can tell us how even in a seemingly unequal battle there were  joyous moments for some entrepreneurs who, though looking innocuous and tiny, had successfully prevented the bulldozing by the all powerful entities. Fierce competition in many sectors in the business world has been the rule rather than exception. It is true that managers from both large and small organizations alike are always faced with this constant challenge to fend off a potentially stronger competitor from their areas of operations. While large organizations might be at a relative advantage compared to a smaller entity due to its size and resources, the competitive pressures are faced by all types even in a micro manner. This potential threat keeps the managers and leaders constantly on their toes and compel them to devise strategies that help navigate these treacherous competitive environments. 

Since the advent of the liberalisation in 1991, multinational corporations entered the Indian market posing a big challenge to the Indian firms. These MNCs were large firms with significant business presence in various parts of the world, operated with large economies of scale and were relatively cash rich. In contrast, the Indian firms were operating in a much smaller market with less cash flows and capital intensity than their MNC rivals. While many local firms perished in this onslaught, a few notable ones have not only survived but have thrived in this competition. Take, for instance, the entry of Japanese bike-maker Honda into the domestic bike sector in the late 1990s. Indian firm Bajaj faced a serious competition from it. However, instead of directly competing with it, it sought to maintain its key strengths and not forage into uncharted territory. Therefore, while Honda made relatively expensive high-end bikes, Bajaj continued to focus on the fuel efficient middle-class bikes and used its extensive network of small roadside repair shops for customer support which Honda lacked. Similarly, Godrej, in the FMCG segment, stuck to its relatively inexpensive hair colour brand instead of competing with high end players such as L’Oreal. In the IT and ITES sector, Indian companies such as Wipro and Infosys initially focussed more on the low-end services supply. Only in the later years, after establishing a good reputation for themselves did they begin directly challenging the larger players like Accenture. 

Just as in many other cases, key learnings can be derived from children’s stories or folktales on how to mitigate such competition and also to take advantage of one’s positions. It also serves as a warning to the complacent and arrogant that the laws of the market are all too brutal and he who fails to understand that finds his place in the graves. 

Once upon a time, a tiger challenged a tiny fish to a race. If the fish lost he would be eaten by the tiger. The fish requested the tiger to allow him to run (or swim rather) in the pond itself while the tiger would run along the banks. The tiger agreed, thinking that this would hardly make any difference to the outcome. On the day of the race, the tiger lost while the fish won. Dejected, the tiger went away in shame. Yet what the tiger failed to see is that the fish had placed members of his own species at specific locations on the track. Thus, every time the tiger checked to see who was leading the race, he would find the fish ahead of him. Actually, it was another fish that was placed ahead of the tiger. As every fish looked identical, it was impossible for the tiger to understand that he had been duped. 

The story of the tiger and the herd of little fish provides such an illustrative insight into leadership decision making in response to a potential adversary. The little fish was small, and probably did not match the tiger in its speed or strength. But what it lacked in speed or strength, it made up for it by the use of innovative strategies. First, the fish ensured that it didn’t step out of its own environment. It knew that it was no match for the tiger on land. It was important to play the game from a position of strength. Second, it decided to work in teams. After all, we are stronger when we work together. By placing members of its own species at different points along the edge of the pond, the fish demonstrated the need for cooperation within an organisation to achieve desired results. Working in silos or competing against one’s own staff or employees is usually debilitating for the growth of the organization. As a leader, one must be able to inspire all stakeholders to work together, leave individual differences aside and to set eyes on a common goal. The other area where the fish worked upon was the use of stealth and illusions. The tiger could have no clue as to what the fish strategized underwater. This way, the strategies remained completely hidden from the adversary and it could never plan a counterattack. 

By placing the fishes at different intervals, the fish created an illusion to the tiger that it is invincible and that it is always ahead of him. This can demoralise the opponent who can then buckle under pressure. That’s exactly what happened to the tiger. This is a very important strategy for any organization competing with another. By demonstrating that you are superior to your adversary- whether it is actually true or not doesn’t matter- you deter the adversary from challenging you in the first place. Even if it does, you always have a psychological advantage over him in the beginning which you can capitalise on later. 

Finally, we come to the tiger’s perspective. By virtue of being the king of the jungle and big in size, the tiger had a potential advantage to begin with. Yet with power comes responsibility. The more powerful you become the more complacent you become. The tiger had a feeling that it was invincible and it brimmed with overconfidence. In the process, it underestimated its adversary and did not take any steps to anticipate its strategies. Large organizations that end up losing their competitive edge to smaller rivals fall for this complacency trap. A number of examples can be taken such as Nokia, Kodak and so on. These companies at one point in time were placed at the commanding heights of their respective markets. Yet they failed to evolve to the changing environments caused by the entry of new innovative rivals. 

The story of the tiger and little fish is a subtle reminder to the managers and leaders on how they can learn from such folktales. Such leadership theories remain hidden in these little folktales which can act as a guiding hand for the new generations of business leaders. 

This article appeared in The Economic Times’ ET Government Opinion column on 6th March 2021. Written in collaboration with Kuladhar Saikia. Link:https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/opinion-winning-the-battle-of-un-equals/81362961

A Mixed Bag

There have been some other newspapers as well where have had the opportunity to write on topics of interest in governance and economics. I’m mentioning them below for your ready reference:

1. Not just floods, Assam needs an urgent, long-term strategy on erosion (Indian Express)
2. Capitalising primary healthcare (The Print)
3. Bridges of Prosperity (The Assam Tribune)
4. AI: Endangering Humanity or Widening Horizons? (The Assam Tribune)
5. A look at the Economics Behind BJP’s Victory (The Economic and Political Weekly)
6. Economics of the Pandemic (The Assam Tribune)
7. Menstrual Hygiene Management: Making it Economical (The Assam Tribune)

Folktales in Economic Times

We had started a series of articles on various aspects of systems thinking, leadership and management through a slightly different approach of using local Assamese folktales. It’s definitely not the first time that management lessons have applied this technique. Yet we feel that there’s a great connect with the reader when you use these anecdotes to bolster your points.

Right from the The Frog Leader for Startups to the The gardener leader for systems thinking , these articles probably deal with the ephemeral issue of management lessons getting drowned in mundanity and thereby failing to inspire the reader.

The Economic Times provides a great platform through its ET Government Column to bring these alternative pathways for exploring traditional management and economic ideas through a fresh outlook and method.

I’m sharing the links to our articles below:

1. The Frog Leader for Startups
2. The gardener leader for systems thinking 
3. Post-pandemic recovery, the slip between the cup and the lip 
4. Economic Stimulus: Bridging the Birbalian Gap
5. Winning the battle of un-equals
6. The race for digitalisation may lead to overdependence on technology 

Capitalising primary healthcare

The Union Budget for 2022-23 allocated Rs. 86,200.65 crore to the health sector, which represents an increase of 16.6 % over previous year’s budget. Some experts in the health sector have criticised this increase as ‘inadequate’  especially when we were hit hard by the pandemic in the last two years. At the same time, others have pointed out the government’s continued focus on creation of robust health infrastructure through its flagship schemes such as PM Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PMABHIM) and recently announced Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission. However, amidst the din and cacophony of budget allocations to the health sector, it is imperative that we continue our focus on one of the most important human capital in the sector- the ANM.  

The ANM or auxiliary nurse midwife is the fulcrum of the rural health infrastructure in India. Being trained in basic healthcare such as administering vaccines and prescribing routine medicines such as IFA (Iron Folic Acid) tablets, she is the first point of contact for the rural patient with the government health system. She runs a sub-centre (SC) and is assisted by two or more ASHA (Accredited Social Health Activist) workers who are responsible for bringing the patient to the SC. In a way, the ANM is a mini-doctor for the rural poor in a country where it is extremely difficult to get access to a doctor in the countryside. This is true for most states in India including Assam. 

Over the last many years, Assam has built a fairly robust public health infrastructure through the flagship National Health Mission (NHM). And this is being reflected in the improvement in the maternal and child health indicators as well as its relatively better performance in COVID 19 management. However, taking a cross-section, we still find that Assam continues to be one of the states showing some of the highest maternal and infant mortality rates. UNICEF, in collaboration with Government of Assam, has carried out a pilot project in some districts of the state, Nagaon being one of them. The principal objective is to understand the critical gaps in our sub centres and ANMs which impede our maternal and child health indicators and at the same time introduce certain cost-effective interventions which can play an important role in improving those indicators. 

One of the factors contributing to high maternal mortality is high risk pregnancy (HRP). From the field visits and surveys it has emerged that ANMs may not be well equipped to detect HRPs at an early stage. It does not mean that the ANMs do not know what constitutes HRP. However, as multiple components such as anaemia, hypertension, diabetes and infections are involved and in the absence of regular training or refresher courses, the ANMs sometimes forget to ask all the relevant questions pertaining to HRP to the pregnant women (PWs). It was also seen that sometimes the ANMs are not immediately able to fill the details of the PWs in the Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) registers due to paucity of time or increased workload on a given Village, Health, Sanitation and Nutrition (VHSND) day which would have helped in detection of HRP. Early detection of HRP is key to lowering incidence of maternal and infant mortality. 

Based on the inputs from the field surveys, UNICEF has created a series of ready reckoners in simple Assamese for the benefit of the ANMs. These multicoloured cards help the ANMs in asking the right set of questions to the PWs to enable easier detection of HRPs, such as the history of previous abortions, time since last delivery, presence of any fever or infection as well as measurements of blood pressure, glucose and haemoglobin levels. It is expected that this simple intervention will greatly help our primary healthcare workers in identifying HRPs in the early stage of pregnancy. It should also act as a tiny refresher course for the ANMs and brush up their memory on things they already know. 

While UNICEF’s collaboration with Government of Assam is a positive step, we need more such simple interventions and regular training to adequately equip our human capital in the health sector. One such step can look into the possibility of utilising the services of senior and experienced ANMs as resource persons and trainers for refresher courses and best practices. Another step is to identify the problems affecting delivery of healthcare at the primary level. There are a few studies that have looked into multiple factors affecting human capital at the grassroots level. These studies point to areas such as training, refresher courses, expanded scope of work, use of technology and supervision as areas of intervention. This enables policymakers in making the right intervention frameworks to address the challenges of capacity building.

At the same time, we need to encourage more discussion and debates around the working of our ANMs  and ASHAs. We need more research and academic interest in this area. It is only through a larger dialogue around this area that we can enable our policymakers to make the right policy prescriptions and interventions which can strengthen and augment the functioning of our primary healthcare workers. 

This article appeared in The Print on 23rd February 2022. Link: https://theprint.in/opinion/anms-unable-to-detect-high-risk-pregnancy-assam-health-sector-at-a-loss-ias-officer/841485/

Not just floods, Assam needs an urgent, long-term strategy on erosion

Assam has lost 4.27 lakh hectares of land in the last 70 years. This land was lost not to border disputes or encroachments. But to its lifeline — the Brahmaputra. The mighty, mercurial river eats away large swathes of land every year. 

Among the many assignments as an Assistant Commissioner of a flood-prone district in Assam, I get the opportunity to visit and evaluate the extent of this erosion. On one June morning, along with Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) officials, we made our way through rugged roads saddled between lush, green paddy fields, typical of rural Assam. In this journey of over two hours starting from the district headquarters in Nagaon, we descended from paved, metalled roads of the highway to the kaccha roads of the interior. Only a heavy vehicle like the Mahindra Bolero could negotiate the latter half of the terrain. 

On the banks of the Kopili river, one of the major tributaries of the Brahmaputra, the Gaon Burha (village headman) pointed us to the ground just below — massive chunks of rock, soil and mud were being swept away by the steady currents of the river. A year ago, the river bank was about 10 metres from where we were standing. We interview the pattadar whose land has been swept away. Once upon a time, all of it was his, he says. 

The bank opposite was increasingly getting exposed. In a way, the river’s course was slightly getting displaced towards our side of the bank. The ‘exposed’ areas were under the river till recently, and are therefore, not myadi or private lands as per revenue records. The irony is that these ‘new’ lands are now government or khas lands. Thus, as more myadi land gets swept away, more state-owned khas lands emerge. While we have the numbers for land lost to erosion, the data on how much khas land is getting added is patchy at best. 

This is a phenomenon playing out through the state. The most spectacular example is, of course, the erosion of Majuli, the world’s largest riverine island. It has lost nearly half its area in the last fifty years. But there are many more instances of less visible erosion, of land quietly getting washed away by the river.

While the national narrative is largely-focused on the floods in Assam, it is this erosion by the river systems that is masquerading as the silent killer. While a combination of natural and man-made factors have exacerbated the crisis, it is the impact on people’s lives that is a cause of consternation. 

As people get uprooted from their lands, they lose the most important asset they have. The landlessness makes them vulnerable and they are forced to migrate. Many of these displaced families now ‘encroach’ on government lands. Some of them move into the protected forests or wildlife sanctuaries. While undocumented immigration has been a historical problem in Assam, today a large fraction of the encroachments are also by families, uprooted by erosion.

The Government of Assam has taken several steps over the years to deal with this massive humanitarian and ecological crisis. Geo-bags, geo-tubes and porcupines dot large stretches of flood-prone banks across the state. In 2015, the Assam Legislative Assembly passed a resolution to recognise river erosion as a ‘disaster’ under State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF) and NDRF guidelines. The state government’s revenue and disaster management department has notified erosion as a state specific disaster in 2015. 

The new Government Land Policy of 2019 has given preference for settlement and allotment of land to indigenous families, driven landless by erosion. Interestingly, the Assam Land Requisition and Acquisition Act, 1964 provides for acquisition and requisition of land for anti-erosion works and for settling of families displaced by erosion. 

In the long term, the strategy will have to focus on erosion mitigation measures such as increasing the vegetation cover around erosion-prone banks through local and endemic plant varieties. This needs to be augmented by people’s participation and capacity building to improvise agriculture practices and land husbandry. For instance, farmers can be incentivised to cover the barren soil with crop residue, which improves soil retention. Soil stabilizers and tackifiers can also be looked into. Even smaller networks of canals and check dams can be considered depending upon environmental and engineering feasibility. International cooperation and knowledge transfer will play a key role here. 

While the measures have just begun, it is prudent that greater focus is given on this issue. The disaster management paradigm around erosion needs to be integrated into the broader framework of river and land conservation. The fact that erosion of prime agricultural and homestead land will continue to be one of the key challenges facing the development administration of the state is a reality we must address sooner than later.

This article appeared in The Indian Express on 12th September 2021. Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/not-just-floods-assam-needs-an-urgent-long-term-strategy-on-erosion-7503593/

The gardener leader for systems thinking

How strongly is your organisation networked within its own  ecosystem? Do the mutually supporting subsystems join your musical  band  in unison to create the rhythm you are looking for? Not quite an easy answer if you’re talking about today’s big and complex  corporations which  are large dynamic organisations with high levels of interconnectedness across multiple value chains. As they operate over diverse locations, procuring raw materials, assembling the finished products, undertaking human resource management and marketing their products, an ecosystem comprising of multiple components develops.

The interdependence across these multiple components and their roles in the smooth functioning of an organisation are very well summarised by this little folktale from grandma’s tales where one comes across the puzzled gardenerexploring the causes of why the flower plants  are not blooming in his garden even after his sincere toil and labour. The plants  point  the finger at the stray  cow which was eating its young shoots. The cow is in no mood to take the blame and  passes the buck to the shepherd’s reluctance to feed her. How can you expect me to do my duty when I remain hungry as the cook fails to provide me food, says the shepherd. Poor cook ! Who will understand his predicament when the woodcutter shirks his responsibility to supply wood for the fire under the oven.  But the woodcutter expresses his helplessness. After all, he needs the axe to cut wood , which the blacksmith is unable to provide. How can I make the axe from raw iron  on the anvil when the rain douses off the fire on the pit, cries the blacksmith. But why does it rain? Riding on the traditional belief that it rains when the frog croaks the  final fault falls on the poor innocuous frog! The frog gives his  defence that he is not to be blamed at all as  he is  duty bound to follow his age old custom of croaking and it is his hereditary right!

Thus, the chain of blame-game for the flowers not blooming ends with the frog bound by his customary habits that he can’t breakaway from. The multitude of bottlenecks in the supply-networks of inputs needs to be properly addressed by the gardener if he wants his garden to be in full bloom. 

The gardener leader in an organisation cannot afford to miss the trees in search for the forest. In the  corporate world, identification of the remotest factor causing the disruption in the optimal functioning of the organisation is essential to initiating an appropriate intervention. Every such subsystem might have some independent or interlinked disruptors that need to be adequately attended to. Very often, the corporate management overlooks certain problems or factors which appear to be  trivial on the surface, but in effect these may have far reaching impact resulting in erroneous strategic decisions. 

In order to avoid falling into this trap of overlooking seemingly trivial subsystems, the corporate leadership needs to invest in systems thinking. This is can be done when the associated linkages of the constituent parts is well understood, and managers assigned to specific tasks avoid the silo behaviour of sticking to their own assigned tasks without having any knowledge of what people assigned to other tasks are doing. Thus, there is a need for cross functional teams in an organization so that members better understand each other.

Through out the entire tale of the gardener   the nature of bottlenecks  was pointing at a whole lot of physically identifiable short comings like lack of food, fire wood, axe etc. but at the end one could come across the intangible factor in terms of impactful customary beliefs and habits. Quite often, these either remain unseen or not given enough attention. Yet they are significant in intangibly influencing the  output and productivity of the performers in the organisation, such as the croaking of the frog in the tale. 

Organisations and management programmes need to nurture such leadership. HR managers need to facilitate greater communication across different verticals, and the top management needs to have a holistic understanding of all constituent parts of the organisation. Only when these conditions are met can we expect a really competitive and dynamic corporation establishing itself as a dominant player in the market.

This article appeared in The Economic Times’ ET Government Opinion Column on 23rd December 2019. Written in collaboration with Kuladhar Saikia. Link: https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/governance/opinion-the-gardener-leader-for-systems-thinking/72938326

ECONOMICS I

                                                                              

The optional paper usually can make or break your chances of success in the exam. Choosing the right optional and preparing thoroughly for it is absolutely necessary if one wants to get a good rank in the exam.

Being a graduate, post graduate and MPhil in Economics, choosing Economics as my optional paper was almost natural for me. However, this also had a drawback. I did not prepare that well for it in my first two attempts under the faulty assumption that I was well versed with the subject. This year, I tried to prepare more comprehensively, especially Paper II.

The advantage of Economics as an optional is that it contains a mix of both technical and subjective components. Paper I is theory and model based which can fetch you more marks if you write the correct answer. Paper II deals with the Indian economy and is more subjective with GS 3 type of approach. People comfortable with writing such essay-based answers can surely fetch more marks here. So, if one prepares well, I feel that one can really get a good score in the paper.

Syllabus

1. Advanced Micro Economics:

(a) Marshallian and Varrasiam Approaches to Price determination.

(b) Alternative Distribution Theories; Ricardo, Kaldor, Kaleeki.

(c) Markets Structure: Monopolistic Competition, Duopoly, Oligopoly.

(d) Modern Welfare Criteria: Pareto Hicks and Scitovsky, Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, A. K. Sen’s Social Welfare Function.

2. Advanced Macro Economics:

Approaches to Employment Income and Interest Rate determination: Classical, Keynes (IS)-LM) curve, Neo-classical synthesis and New classical, Theories of Interest Rate determination and Interest Rate Structure.

3. Money-Banking and Finance:

(a) Demand for and Supply of Money: Money Multiplier Quantity Theory of Money (Fisher, Pique and Friedman) and Keyne’s Theory on Demand for Money, Goals and Instruments of Monetary Management in Closed and Open Economies. Relation between the Central Bank and the Treasury. Proposal for ceiling on growth rate of money.

(b) Public Finance and its Role in market Economy: In stabilisation of supply, allocative, of resources and in distribution and development. Sources of Government revenue, forms of Taxes and Subsidies, their incidence and effects. Limits to taxation, loans, crowding-out effects and limits to borrowings. Public expenditure and its effects.

4. International Economics:

(a) Old and New theories of International Trade.

(i) Comparative advantage,

(ii) Terms of Trade and Offer Curve.

(iii) Product Cycle and Strategic Trade Theories.

(iv)Trade as an engine of growth and theories of underdevelopment in an open economy.

(b) Forms of Protection: Tariff and quota.

(c) Balance of Payments Adjustment: Alternative Approaches.

(i) Price versus income, income adjustments under fixed exchange rates.

(ii) Theories of Policy Mix.

(iii) Exchange rate adjustments under capital mobility.

(iv)Floating Rates and their Implications for Developing Countries: Currency Boards.

(v) Trade Policy and Developing Countries.

(vi) BOP, adjustments and Policy Coordination in open economy macromodel.

(vii) Speculative attacks.

(viii) Trade Blocks and Monetary Unions.

(ix) WTO: TRIMS, TRIPS, Domestic Measures, Different Rounds of WTO talks.

5. Growth and Development:

(a) (i) Theories of growth: Harrod’s model;

(ii) Lewis model of development with surplus labour.

(iii) Balanced Unbalanced Growth.

(iv) Human Capitals and Economic Growth.

(v) Research and Development and Economic Growth.

(b) Process of Economic Development of less developed countries: Myrdal and Kuznets on economic development and structural change: Role of Agriculture in Economic Development of less developed countries.

(c) Economic Development and International Trade and Investment, Role of Multinationals.

(d) Planning and Economic Development: changing role of Markets and Planning, Private-Public Partnership.

(e) Welfare indicators and measures of growth—Human Development Indices. The basic needs approach.

(f) Development and Environmental Sustainability—Renewable and Non-renewable Resources, Environmental Degradation, Intergenerational equity development.

As can be seen from above, the UPSC syllabus is fairly comprehensive. The main topics are- Advanced Micro Economics, Advanced Macro Economics, Money-Banking and Finance, International Economics, and Growth and Development.

The Booklist

Topic	Books/Magazines/Sources etc	Remarks
Advanced Micro Economics	1. Ahuja’s “Advanced Economic Theory” 2. Abhimanyu Gehlaut’s handwritten summaries from Ahuja. https://reluctanteconomistblog.wordpress.com/econ-p1/   I am also attaching the files here and here for your convenience.	This is the only book. Read it once completely, except some of the skipped chapters I have mentioned.     Once completing the first reading, can go through Abhimanyu Gehlaut’s notes for revision. Ahuja is very repetitive.
Advanced Macro Economics	1.  Froyen   2. Ahuja’s “Macroeconomics”	Froyen gives a good understanding of the concepts and theory. Please read it thoroughly at least once.   Ahuja should be read after that, to plug the gaps and cover the entire syllabus.
Money, Banking and Finance	1.  Froyen   2. Ahuja’s “Macroeconomics”	Only the relevant chapters on banking, monetary policy and theories of money from these two books. First, read Froyen. Then, Ahuja.
International Economics	1. Salvatore’s “International Economics: Trade and Finance”   2. Gaurav Agarwal’s notes for revision	Salvatore is the bible for this topic. Read it thoroughly. Almost every topic is important. Try to relate it with the syllabus.   Gaurav Agarwal’s notes are good for revision. They are very comprehensive.
Growth and Development	1. Thirwall’s “Economics of Development” 2. Jhingan’s “The Economics of Development and Planning”	Every chapter of Thirwall need not be read. Read only those chapters that correspond to the syllabus topics.   Jhingan should be used to cover the remaining portions.   Use Google and Wikipedia extensively in this topic. Many parts are not covered in either book and it is better to use the internet to gather good info on the same.

Websites and blogs

• Abhimanyu Gehlaut: https://reluctanteconomistblog.wordpress.com/econ-optional/
• Gaurav Agarwal: https://thesupermanreturns.wordpress.com/category/economics/
• Tejaswi Rana: https://www.insightsonindia.com/2017/06/23/economics-optional-strategy-tejasvi-rana-rank-12-marks-325-cse-2016-download-economics-optional-notes-related-documents/
• Abhijeet Sinha: https://abhijeetsinhaupsc.wordpress.com/2018/06/06/economics-paper-1-notes-2/
• Blisspoint: https://blisspointstudies.com/

A few important points

• Revision is key. Before the exam, one should have revised at least once. Between prelims and mains, we get around 3 months. One can spend about 1.5 months in a thorough revision of the paper.
• Answer writing is extremely important. Even if you know the model or the theory, you need to be able to explain it clearly and concisely in a limited set of words and space. That requires practice.
• Diagrams. The appropriate diagram or a graph is a must if the answer or the model so requires. Missing out on it not only reduces scores but also make it difficult to write a concise answer.
• While economics is a highly mathematical and quantitative subject, UPSC does not demand that much of mathematical rigour. Avoid the use of large or complicated mathematical equations. This is especially true for those who have done Masters in economics. Masters courses are very mathematical, but UPSC syllabus is not. One needs to be careful of that.
• Textbooks of Indian writers are not that good at explaining the key concepts. Foreign writers are better suited for that purpose. But Indian textbooks are more important when it comes to the questions in the exam. So, once you have understood the key concepts from the foreign textbooks, focus on the Indian textbooks.